Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.